Standings
Title odds and race predictions — Tier 2, from thousands of simulated seasons.
The Emilia Romagna Grand Prix, round seven of the VRL Tier 2 season, is poised to deliver another thrilling contest. Stef, currently leading the championship with 69 points, holds a 38% chance of clinching the title, with Wxrrior, 12 points behind on 57, not far off with 34%. Freddie, a key contender with 19% win chances and 39% for a podium, faces stiff competition from Pofi and Findlay, who each have a 12% and 11% shot at the win respectively. Meanwhile, Jake, often overlooked, is a dark horse with a 16% chance to secure a podium finish.
Written by AI from the prediction numbers ·Show all 22 driversShow fewer
DwgellyCadillac · races 41% 5% 13% 5% TrymedAston Martin · races 86% 4% 14% 7% HazzkWilliams · races 63% 4% 13% 3% MidgetMcLaren 4% 14% 2% IcehAudi · races 85% 3% 12% 3% NanoMercedes · races 41% 2% 8% 3% UmarFerrari · races 64% 2% 8% 3% RhysHaas · races 86% 2% 7% 4% JuddaRed Bull · races 35% 2% 6% 1% OdhranMercedes 2% 6% 8% BeanCadillac · races 75% 1% 4% 4% TrystanAston Martin · races 35% 1% 3% <1% MattHaas · races 52% 1% 3% 1% JuceyMcLaren · races 74% <1% 2% <1% MV3 LoverRed Bull · races 41% <1% 2% <1% RJAlpine · races 52% <1% <1% <1%Why these chances?Hide the reasons
| Driver | Form | Quali | Race | Races | DNF risk | Grid |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freddie | 74 | 73 | 75 | 5 | 21% | — |
| Pofi | 64 | 72 | 59 | 5 | 10% | — |
| Findlay | 65 | 77 | 59 | 4 | 6% | — |
| Wxrrior | 59 | 51 | 63 | 6 | 10% | — |
| Jker | 66 | 72 | 62 | 0 | 5% | — |
| Jake | 53 | 59 | 51 | 5 | 21% | — |
Form blends race pace with qualifying pace (lap-time gaps and grid spots), recent races counting most. Few races this season means last season and other tiers count for more. Once qualifying is in, the grid slot adds a boost, especially from the front row. Race-day luck and DNFs spread the chances out.
Predicted gridHide predicted grid
- JkerRacing Bulls1:15.236 pole
- FindlayFerrari1:15.303 +0.067s
- FreddieAudi1:15.333 +0.097s
- PofiRacing Bulls1:15.348 +0.111s
- DwgellyCadillac1:15.398 +0.161s
- OdhranMercedes1:15.543 +0.306s
- TrymedAston Martin1:15.642 +0.406s
- NanoMercedes1:15.663 +0.427s
- BeanCadillac1:15.667 +0.431s
- WxrriorAlpine1:15.673 +0.437s
- UmarFerrari1:15.703 +0.466s
- JakeWilliams1:15.760 +0.524s
- RhysHaas1:15.781 +0.544s
- HazzkWilliams1:15.784 +0.547s
- IcehAudi1:15.813 +0.577s
- MidgetMcLaren1:15.848 +0.612s
- JuddaRed Bull1:15.983 +0.746s
- MattHaas1:16.127 +0.890s
- MV3 LoverRed Bull1:16.468 +1.232s
- JuceyMcLaren1:17.384 +2.148s
- TrystanAston Martin1:17.579 +2.343s
- RJAlpine1:17.929 +2.692s
The order they qualify in on average across the simulations, with each driver's expected lap (from the predicted pole time), based on their usual qualifying pace. Replaced by the real grid once qualifying is in.
Chance of scoring the most points of any team this weekend, and each team's expected haul.
Expected = average final points across every simulated season. Reserves and guest drivers keep the points they have so far (and aren't listed until they score).
Each point is replayed with only the results up to that round, so it shows what the site would have said at the time. "Now" is today's prediction.
The model's rating of each driver: roughly the share of the Tier 2 field they'd beat on an average day. The line shows it after each race this season; arrows are the change since the last race.
Stef can't clinch at the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix. The earliest it could happen is R9 Singapore Grand Prix, and only if Stef took maximum points every weekend while nobody else scored.
The round the title is mathematically decided, across all the simulated seasons.
The champion usually ends on about 143 points (121–170 in most simulated seasons).
Magic number: Stef needs 165 more points to be certain of the title, even if Wxrrior won every remaining race with the fastest lap.
Show the chance of every finishing positionHide
| Driver | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | P5 | P6 | P7 | P8 | P9 | P10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stef | 1 | 9 | 28 | 36 | 21 | 6 | 1 | |||
| Wxrrior | 31 | 29 | 20 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Freddie | 40 | 26 | 17 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| Heartshapedtox | 2 | 11 | 27 | |||||||
| Pofi | 16 | 20 | 22 | 18 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Findlay | 10 | 15 | 18 | 20 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
| Midget | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 14 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 7 |
| Iceh | 1 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 12 | 12 | 9 |
| Jake | 1 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 8 |
| Hazzk | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 11 | 9 | |
| Trymed | 1 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 11 | 9 | |
| Rhys | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |||
| Umar | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 6 | |||
| Bean | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | ||||||
| Dwgelly | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |||
| Nano | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
Percent chance of finishing the championship in each position. Darker = more likely.
Average places gained or lost per race against the finishing order the model expected before each race (after qualifying). DNFs aren't counted.
The model's win chance for each race winner once the grid was known, lowest first.
Each driver's qualifying pace and race pace ranked within Tier 2. A big gap between the two makes them a specialist.
Out of 100: how little a driver's finishing position changes from race to race (DNFs count as last). Needs three finishes.
Drivers who keep finishing close together with an even record this season. Tap one to compare them.
Chance each teammate finishes ahead — in the final standings and at the next race (when both start). Compare any two drivers for more.
Who ends the season top of each list in the simulations (ties share it). A newcomer is anyone in their first VRL season.
Show every driver's expected finish at every raceHide
| Driver | R7 | R8 | R9 | R10 | R11 | R12 | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freddie | P4 | P4 | P4 | P4 | P4 | P4 | 72 |
| Wxrrior | P6 | P6 | P6 | P6 | P6 | P6 | 63 |
| Pofi | P6 | P6 | P6 | P6 | P6 | P6 | 63 |
| Findlay | P5 | P5 | P5 | P5 | P5 | P5 | 59 |
| Midget | P9 | P9 | P9 | P9 | P9 | P9 | 39 |
| Jake | P7 | P7 | P7 | P8 | P8 | P8 | 40 |
| Iceh | P9 | P9 | P9 | P9 | P9 | P9 | 35 |
| Hazzk | P7 | P7 | P7 | P7 | P7 | P7 | 31 |
| Trymed | P7 | P7 | P7 | P7 | P7 | P7 | 34 |
| Umar | P9 | P9 | P9 | P9 | P9 | P9 | 25 |
| Rhys | P10 | P10 | P10 | P10 | P10 | P10 | 25 |
| Dwgelly | P6 | P6 | P6 | P6 | P6 | P6 | 27 |
| Jker | P5 | P5 | P5 | P5 | P5 | P5 | 28 |
| Bean | P11 | P11 | P11 | P11 | P11 | P11 | 17 |
Each driver's average finish when they finish, race by race (hover for expected points). The further away the race, the rougher the guess.
Every remaining race in Tier 2, worked out from today's results only. The further away a race is, the more a driver's form can change before then, so the chances even out round by round. These can be very inaccurate: drivers change teams, join, leave or miss races, and form changes a lot over a season. Treat them as a bit of fun.
Show predictions for all 5 remaining racesHide long-range predictions
Show all 22 driversShow fewer
JakeWilliams · races 86% 5% 16% 4% DwgellyCadillac · races 41% 5% 13% 5% TrymedAston Martin · races 86% 4% 15% 7% HazzkWilliams · races 64% 4% 13% 3% MidgetMcLaren 4% 14% 2% IcehAudi · races 85% 3% 12% 3% NanoMercedes · races 41% 2% 8% 3% UmarFerrari · races 63% 2% 8% 3% RhysHaas · races 86% 2% 7% 3% JuddaRed Bull · races 35% 2% 6% 1% OdhranMercedes 2% 7% 8% BeanCadillac · races 74% 1% 4% 4% TrystanAston Martin · races 35% 1% 3% <1% MattHaas · races 52% 1% 3% 1% JuceyMcLaren · races 74% <1% 2% <1% MV3 LoverRed Bull · races 41% <1% 2% <1% RJAlpine · races 52% <1% <1% <1%Show all 22 driversShow fewer
JakeWilliams · races 86% 5% 17% 4% DwgellyCadillac · races 41% 5% 13% 5% TrymedAston Martin · races 85% 4% 14% 7% HazzkWilliams · races 64% 4% 13% 3% MidgetMcLaren 4% 14% 2% IcehAudi · races 85% 3% 12% 3% NanoMercedes · races 41% 2% 8% 3% UmarFerrari · races 63% 2% 9% 3% OdhranMercedes 2% 7% 8% RhysHaas · races 86% 2% 8% 4% JuddaRed Bull · races 35% 2% 6% 1% BeanCadillac · races 75% 1% 4% 4% TrystanAston Martin · races 35% 1% 3% <1% MattHaas · races 52% 1% 3% 1% JuceyMcLaren · races 74% <1% 2% <1% MV3 LoverRed Bull · races 41% <1% 2% <1% RJAlpine · races 52% <1% <1% <1%Show all 22 driversShow fewer
JakeWilliams · races 85% 5% 17% 4% DwgellyCadillac · races 41% 5% 13% 5% TrymedAston Martin · races 86% 5% 15% 7% HazzkWilliams · races 64% 4% 13% 3% MidgetMcLaren 4% 14% 2% IcehAudi · races 86% 3% 13% 3% NanoMercedes · races 41% 2% 8% 3% UmarFerrari · races 63% 2% 8% 3% RhysHaas · races 86% 2% 8% 3% OdhranMercedes 2% 7% 8% JuddaRed Bull · races 35% 2% 6% 1% BeanCadillac · races 75% 1% 4% 4% TrystanAston Martin · races 35% 1% 3% <1% MattHaas · races 52% 1% 3% 1% JuceyMcLaren · races 74% <1% 2% <1% MV3 LoverRed Bull · races 41% <1% 2% <1% RJAlpine · races 52% <1% <1% <1%Show all 22 driversShow fewer
JakeWilliams · races 86% 5% 16% 4% DwgellyCadillac · races 41% 5% 13% 5% TrymedAston Martin · races 85% 4% 14% 7% HazzkWilliams · races 63% 4% 13% 3% MidgetMcLaren 4% 14% 2% IcehAudi · races 86% 3% 13% 3% NanoMercedes · races 41% 2% 8% 3% UmarFerrari · races 63% 2% 9% 3% RhysHaas · races 86% 2% 8% 3% OdhranMercedes 2% 7% 8% JuddaRed Bull · races 35% 2% 6% 1% BeanCadillac · races 75% 1% 4% 4% TrystanAston Martin · races 35% 1% 3% <1% MattHaas · races 52% 1% 3% 1% MV3 LoverRed Bull · races 41% <1% 2% <1% JuceyMcLaren · races 75% <1% 2% <1% RJAlpine · races 52% <1% <1% <1%Show all 22 driversShow fewer
JakeWilliams · races 85% 5% 16% 4% DwgellyCadillac · races 41% 5% 13% 5% TrymedAston Martin · races 86% 4% 14% 7% HazzkWilliams · races 63% 4% 13% 3% MidgetMcLaren 4% 14% 2% IcehAudi · races 86% 3% 13% 3% NanoMercedes · races 41% 2% 8% 3% UmarFerrari · races 63% 2% 9% 3% RhysHaas · races 86% 2% 8% 4% JuddaRed Bull · races 35% 2% 6% 1% OdhranMercedes 2% 7% 8% BeanCadillac · races 74% 1% 5% 4% TrystanAston Martin · races 35% 1% 3% <1% MattHaas · races 52% 1% 3% 1% JuceyMcLaren · races 75% <1% 2% <1% MV3 LoverRed Bull · races 41% <1% 2% <1% RJAlpine · races 52% <1% <1% <1%Pick the podium and pole before each race (log in with Discord). 3 points for an exact podium spot, 1 for a podium driver in the wrong spot, 2 for pole. The VRL Predictor plays too — can you beat the model?
| # | Player | Points |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | VRL Predictor model | 19 |
| 2 | [BDA] Hazzk | 15 |
| 3 | Pofi3259⁰⁶ | 14 |
| 4 | Always Gaming65 | 9 |
| 5 | freddie | 6 |
| 6 | unLuckyNoob44 | 4 |
| 7 | [VDR]Bramble618 | 3 |
| 7 | Odhran | 3 |
| 9 | Fortdude21 | 2 |
| 10 | [VRL] MstE_SpurS | 1 |
Pick who you think will be champion in each tier. You can change your pick until they close. The model picks too.
Most picked: Brambull (6), Pekima (1), Bobbieboy (1)
The model picked Brambull.
Most picked: Wxrrior (2), Pofi (1), Freddie (1)
The model picked Pofi.
Most picked: unLuckyNoob44 (4), Rayaan (1), Dwgelly (1)
The model picked unLuckyNoob44.
Every Tier 2 race of Season 2, Season 3 and Season 4 replayed as if it hadn't happened yet: settings learned only from earlier races, a prediction before qualifying, another once the grid was known, then checked against the real result.
Show all 24 replayed racesHide replayed races
| Race | Pole pick | Before quali | After quali | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S4 R6 Spanish Grand Prix | Muffin ✗ | Stef ✗ | Freddie ✓ | Freddie |
| S4 R5 Azerbaijan Grand Prix | Muffin ✗ | Stef ✗ | Freddie ✗ | Iceh |
| S4 R4 British Grand Prix | Muffin ✗ | Stef ✓ | Stef ✓ | Stef |
| S4 R3 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix | Heartshapedtox ✗ | Stef ✗ | Stef ✗ | Kurtis |
| S4 R2 Japanese Grand Prix | Heartshapedtox ✗ | Heartshapedtox ✗ | Heartshapedtox ✗ | Stef |
| S4 R1 Australian Grand Prix | Jker ✗ | Mste ✗ | Pofi ✗ | Heartshapedtox |
| S3 R12 Sao Paulo Grand Prix | Jake ✗ | Mste ✗ | Thunderofwar ✗ | Wxrrior |
| S3 R11 Las Vegas Grand Prix | Jake ✓ | Mste ✗ | Jake ✗ | Drky |
| S3 R10 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix | Jake ✗ | Mste ✗ | Thunderofwar ✗ | Wxrrior |
| S3 R9 Belgian Grand Prix | Thunderofwar ✗ | Thunderofwar ✗ | Mste ✗ | Wxrrior |
| S3 R8 Hungarian Grand Prix | Mste ✗ | Mste ✗ | Thunderofwar ✗ | Always |
| S3 R7 United States Grand Prix | Oak ✗ | Oak ✗ | Jker ✗ | Midget |
| S3 R6 Canadian Grand Prix | Ashro ✗ | Oak ✗ | — ✗ | Mste |
| S3 R5 British Grand Prix | Ashro ✗ | Oak ✗ | Freddie ✗ | Mste |
| S3 R4 Miami Grand Prix | Ashro ✗ | Oak ✓ | Oak ✓ | Oak |
| S3 R3 Australian Grand Prix | Brambull ✗ | Brambull ✗ | Oak ✓ | Oak |
| S3 R2 Monaco Grand Prix | Mste ✗ | Brambull ✗ | Oak ✗ | Mste |
| S3 R1 Bahrain Grand Prix | Brambull ✗ | Brambull ✗ | Oak ✗ | Freddie |
| S2 R12 Sao Paulo Grand Prix | Brambull ✗ | Brambull ✓ | Pofi ✗ | Brambull |
| S2 R11 Singapore Grand Prix | Brambull ✓ | Brambull ✓ | Brambull ✓ | Brambull |
| S2 R10 Italian Grand Prix | Brambull ✗ | Krystial ✗ | FormulaKyle ✓ | FormulaKyle |
| S2 R9 Dutch Grand Prix | Krystial ✗ | Krystial ✗ | Krystial ✗ | FormulaKyle |
| S2 R8 Japanese Grand Prix | Krystial ✓ | Krystial ✓ | Krystial ✓ | Krystial |
| S2 R7 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix | Krystial ✓ | Krystial ✓ | Krystial ✓ | Krystial |
| Chances of | It said | Happened | Count |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0–5% | 1% | 2% | 2,398 |
| 5–15% | 9% | 9% | 759 |
| 15–30% | 21% | 18% | 521 |
| 30–50% | 40% | 46% | 264 |
| 50–75% | 60% | 58% | 185 |
| 75–100% | 81% | 76% | 29 |
Every win and podium chance it gave in the training replay (before and after qualifying), grouped by size. If it's honest, its 20% chances come off about 20% of the time, so the dots sit on the line. It was a bit too sure of itself, so race-day luck is now turned up by 10%. Small groups (a low count) bounce around a lot.
How the predictions work
Nobody's guessing here: the site races the rest of the season 100,000 times and counts what happens. Each driver's pace comes from where they've been finishing and qualifying (grid spot and lap-time gap to pole), with recent races counting most, last season helping early on, and results from other tiers counted too, adjusted for the tier's level. DNFs, missed races and a bit of race-day luck are all built in, and points use the league's own rules, sprints and fastest lap included.
It trains itself, without peeking. Every time it updates, it replays Season 2, Season 3 and Season 4 race by race. Before each race it re-learns its settings from the races before it only, predicts pole (from each driver's usual qualifying lap gap, recent sessions counting most) and the winner as if qualifying hadn't happened, predicts the winner again once the grid is known, then checks both against what really happened. Over 56 replayed races it picked the winner 25% of the time before qualifying (a random pick: about 4%) and 36% after it, with 57% of podium spots right. The live predictions then use settings learned from every race so far.
It also tests two extra ideas each time, how drivers go at particular tracks and a rating based on who they beat, and only uses them if they make the replay more accurate. So far neither has, so both are switched off. Cars are equal in the league, so only drivers are rated. Finally it checks its own percentages are honest (above) and adjusts how sure of itself it is to match, and measures how much form wanders from race to race, so races further ahead are treated as less certain.
It updates after every result. It's a bit of fun, not a guarantee.