Standings
Title odds and race predictions — Tier 3, from thousands of simulated seasons.
The British Grand Prix, the fourth round of the VRL season, is set to be a thrilling battle as unLuckyNoob44 (Haas) aims to extend his lead over Rayaan (McLaren). With unLuckyNoob44 holding a 16-point advantage and a 56% chance of taking the title, Rayaan will be looking to close the gap. The model predicts a closely contested race, with unLuckyNoob44 and Rayaan both having a 26% and 25% chance of winning respectively, and strong podium prospects for both at 57%. Dwgelly (Audi) and the dark horse, Formula KRTS (Aston Martin), also pose threats, with podium chances of 44% and 12% respectively.
Written by AI from the prediction numbers ·Rough estimate — could be very inaccurate. No tier has qualified this weekend yet, so this is based on the last time the league raced here with the current cars (Season 3, round 5). Weather, setups, track changes and a new season's drivers can easily move it by a second or more. Tier 3 qualifies first, so there's nothing from this weekend to go on.
Show all 21 driversShow fewer
IanMercedes · races 78% 2% 10% 4% RomijnAston Martin · races 95% 2% 10% 2% KyWilliams 2% 10% <1% HazzaAudi 2% 9% <1% MisternoaAlpine · races 62% 1% 7% 5% Nibble25Red Bull · races 45% 1% 6% <1% MV3Alpine · races 45% 1% 6% <1% OscarMercedes 1% 6% <1% RiktaCadillac · races 95% 1% 4% <1% PezFerrari · races 62% <1% 2% <1% KaidenCadillac · races 62% <1% 2% <1% WalkerRed Bull · races 78% <1% 1% 0% JackLN1Racing Bulls · races 78% <1% 1% <1% DylxnMcLaren <1% 1% <1% SnoopyFerrari · races 95% <1% 1% <1%Why these chances?Hide the reasons
| Driver | Form | Quali | Race | Races | DNF risk | Grid |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| unLuckyNoob44 | 80 | 82 | 78 | 3 | 6% | — |
| Rayaan | 80 | 82 | 77 | 3 | 5% | — |
| Dwgelly | 78 | 73 | 83 | 3 | 21% | — |
| Lewis | 62 | 72 | 52 | 3 | 7% | — |
| Fletcher | 59 | 55 | 63 | 3 | 28% | — |
| Formula KRTS | 61 | 72 | 50 | 1 | 30% | — |
Form blends race pace with qualifying pace (lap-time gaps and grid spots), recent races counting most. Few races this season means last season and other tiers count for more. Once qualifying is in, the grid slot adds a boost, especially from the front row. Race-day luck and DNFs spread the chances out.
Predicted gridHide predicted grid
- unLuckyNoob44Haas1:29.148 pole
- RayaanMcLaren1:29.413 +0.265s
- DwgellyAudi1:29.659 +0.511s
- LewisHaas1:29.721 +0.573s
- Formula KRTSAston Martin1:29.824 +0.676s
- MisternoaAlpine1:29.863 +0.715s
- IanMercedes1:29.929 +0.781s
- RomijnAston Martin1:29.936 +0.788s
- FletcherRacing Bulls1:29.983 +0.835s
- MV3Alpine1:30.267 +1.119s
- Nibble25Red Bull1:30.382 +1.234s
- KyWilliams1:30.492 +1.344s
- HazzaAudi1:30.629 +1.481s
- OscarMercedes1:30.699 +1.551s
- PezFerrari1:30.992 +1.844s
- RiktaCadillac1:31.176 +2.028s
- DylxnMcLaren1:31.629 +2.481s
- JackLN1Racing Bulls1:31.743 +2.595s
- KaidenCadillac1:31.865 +2.717s
- SnoopyFerrari1:32.123 +2.976s
- WalkerRed Bullavg P18.7
The order they qualify in on average across the simulations, with each driver's expected lap (from the rough pole estimate, so treat the times as rough too), based on their usual qualifying pace. Replaced by the real grid once qualifying is in.
Chance of scoring the most points of any team this weekend, and each team's expected haul.
Expected = average final points across every simulated season. Reserves and guest drivers keep the points they have so far (and aren't listed until they score).
Each point is replayed with only the results up to that round, so it shows what the site would have said at the time. "Now" is today's prediction.
The model's rating of each driver: roughly the share of the Tier 3 field they'd beat on an average day. The line shows it after each race this season; arrows are the change since the last race.
unLuckyNoob44 can't clinch at the British Grand Prix. The earliest it could happen is R8 Hungarian Grand Prix, and only if unLuckyNoob44 took maximum points every weekend while nobody else scored.
The round the title is mathematically decided, across all the simulated seasons.
The champion usually ends on about 226 points (192–262 in most simulated seasons).
Magic number: unLuckyNoob44 needs 249 more points to be certain of the title, even if Rayaan won every remaining race with the fastest lap.
Show the chance of every finishing positionHide
| Driver | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | P5 | P6 | P7 | P8 | P9 | P10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| unLuckyNoob44 | 56 | 31 | 11 | 2 | 1 | |||||
| Rayaan | 34 | 41 | 17 | 5 | 2 | |||||
| Fletcher | 1 | 3 | 12 | 26 | 26 | 16 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| Dwgelly | 8 | 20 | 39 | 19 | 9 | 3 | 1 | |||
| Ky | 2 | 7 | 12 | 17 | 16 | 13 | 11 | 8 | ||
| Lewis | 1 | 5 | 15 | 27 | 22 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 |
| Oscar | 1 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | ||
| Hazza | 1 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 11 | ||
| Romijn | 1 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | ||
| Ian | 1 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 11 | ||
| Rikta | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | ||||
| JackLN1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |||||||
| Dylxn | 1 | 1 | 2 | |||||||
| Pez | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |||||
| Misternoa | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 9 | |||
| Kaiden | 1 | 1 |
Percent chance of finishing the championship in each position. Darker = more likely.
Average places gained or lost per race against the finishing order the model expected before each race (after qualifying). DNFs aren't counted.
The model's win chance for each race winner once the grid was known, lowest first.
Each driver's qualifying pace and race pace ranked within Tier 3. A big gap between the two makes them a specialist.
Drivers who keep finishing close together with an even record this season. Tap one to compare them.
Chance each teammate finishes ahead — in the final standings and at the next race (when both start). Compare any two drivers for more.
Who ends the season top of each list in the simulations (ties share it). A newcomer is anyone in their first VRL season.
Show every driver's expected finish at every raceHide
| Driver | R4 | R5 | R6 | R7 | R8 | R9 | R10 | R11 | R12 | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| unLuckyNoob44 | P3 | P4 | P4 | P4 | P4 | P4 | P4 | P4 | P4 | 145 |
| Rayaan | P4 | P4 | P4 | P4 | P4 | P4 | P4 | P4 | P4 | 145 |
| Dwgelly | P4 | P4 | P4 | P4 | P4 | P4 | P4 | P4 | P4 | 115 |
| Lewis | P6 | P6 | P6 | P6 | P6 | P6 | P6 | P6 | P6 | 94 |
| Fletcher | P7 | P7 | P7 | P7 | P7 | P7 | P7 | P7 | P7 | 67 |
| Ky | P9 | P9 | P9 | P9 | P9 | P9 | P9 | P9 | P9 | 55 |
| Hazza | P9 | P9 | P9 | P9 | P9 | P9 | P9 | P9 | P9 | 49 |
| Romijn | P8 | P9 | P9 | P9 | P9 | P9 | P9 | P9 | P9 | 50 |
| Ian | P8 | P8 | P8 | P8 | P8 | P8 | P8 | P8 | P8 | 51 |
| Oscar | P10 | P10 | P10 | P10 | P10 | P10 | P10 | P10 | P10 | 42 |
| Misternoa | P9 | P9 | P9 | P9 | P9 | P9 | P9 | P9 | P9 | 37 |
| Formula KRTS | P6 | P6 | P6 | P7 | P7 | P7 | P7 | P7 | P7 | 43 |
| Rikta | P11 | P10 | P10 | P10 | P10 | P10 | P10 | P10 | P10 | 27 |
| MV3 | P8 | P8 | P8 | P8 | P8 | P8 | P8 | P8 | P8 | 28 |
Each driver's average finish when they finish, race by race (hover for expected points). The further away the race, the rougher the guess.
Every remaining race in Tier 3, worked out from today's results only. The further away a race is, the more a driver's form can change before then, so the chances even out round by round. These can be very inaccurate: drivers change teams, join, leave or miss races, and form changes a lot over a season. Treat them as a bit of fun.
Show predictions for all 8 remaining racesHide long-range predictions
Show all 21 driversShow fewer
Formula KRTSAston Martin · races 62% 3% 12% 7% IanMercedes · races 78% 2% 10% 5% RomijnAston Martin · races 95% 2% 10% 2% KyWilliams 2% 10% 1% HazzaAudi 2% 9% <1% MisternoaAlpine · races 62% 1% 7% 5% MV3Alpine · races 45% 1% 6% <1% Nibble25Red Bull · races 45% 1% 6% <1% OscarMercedes 1% 7% <1% RiktaCadillac 1% 4% <1% PezFerrari · races 62% <1% 2% <1% KaidenCadillac · races 62% <1% 2% <1% WalkerRed Bull · races 78% <1% 2% <1% JackLN1Racing Bulls · races 78% <1% 1% <1% DylxnMcLaren <1% 1% <1% SnoopyFerrari <1% 1% <1%Show all 21 driversShow fewer
Formula KRTSAston Martin · races 62% 3% 12% 7% IanMercedes · races 78% 2% 11% 5% RomijnAston Martin 2% 10% 2% KyWilliams · races 95% 2% 10% 1% HazzaAudi 2% 10% 1% MisternoaAlpine · races 61% 2% 8% 5% MV3Alpine · races 45% 1% 6% 1% Nibble25Red Bull · races 45% 1% 6% <1% OscarMercedes 1% 7% <1% RiktaCadillac 1% 4% <1% PezFerrari · races 61% <1% 3% <1% KaidenCadillac · races 61% <1% 2% <1% WalkerRed Bull · races 78% <1% 2% 0% DylxnMcLaren · races 95% <1% 1% <1% SnoopyFerrari <1% 1% <1% JackLN1Racing Bulls · races 78% <1% 1% <1%Show all 21 driversShow fewer
Formula KRTSAston Martin · races 62% 3% 12% 7% IanMercedes · races 78% 2% 11% 5% RomijnAston Martin 2% 11% 3% KyWilliams 2% 11% 1% HazzaAudi 2% 10% 1% MisternoaAlpine · races 62% 2% 8% 5% Nibble25Red Bull · races 45% 1% 6% 1% MV3Alpine · races 45% 1% 6% 1% OscarMercedes · races 95% 1% 7% <1% RiktaCadillac 1% 4% <1% PezFerrari · races 62% <1% 3% <1% KaidenCadillac · races 62% <1% 2% <1% WalkerRed Bull · races 78% <1% 2% <1% JackLN1Racing Bulls · races 78% <1% 1% <1% DylxnMcLaren · races 95% <1% 1% <1% SnoopyFerrari · races 95% <1% 1% <1%Show all 21 driversShow fewer
Formula KRTSAston Martin · races 62% 4% 12% 7% IanMercedes · races 79% 3% 11% 5% RomijnAston Martin · races 95% 2% 11% 3% KyWilliams · races 95% 2% 11% 1% HazzaAudi 2% 10% 1% MisternoaAlpine · races 62% 2% 8% 5% Nibble25Red Bull · races 45% 1% 6% 1% MV3Alpine · races 45% 1% 6% 1% OscarMercedes 1% 7% 1% RiktaCadillac · races 95% 1% 4% <1% PezFerrari · races 62% <1% 3% <1% KaidenCadillac · races 62% <1% 2% <1% WalkerRed Bull · races 78% <1% 2% <1% DylxnMcLaren <1% 1% <1% JackLN1Racing Bulls · races 78% <1% 1% <1% SnoopyFerrari <1% 1% <1%Show all 21 driversShow fewer
Formula KRTSAston Martin · races 61% 3% 12% 7% IanMercedes · races 78% 3% 11% 5% RomijnAston Martin 3% 11% 3% KyWilliams 2% 11% 1% HazzaAudi 2% 10% 1% MisternoaAlpine · races 62% 2% 8% 5% Nibble25Red Bull · races 45% 1% 6% 1% MV3Alpine · races 45% 1% 6% 1% OscarMercedes · races 95% 1% 8% 1% RiktaCadillac 1% 5% <1% PezFerrari · races 62% <1% 3% <1% KaidenCadillac · races 62% <1% 2% <1% WalkerRed Bull · races 78% <1% 2% <1% DylxnMcLaren · races 95% <1% 1% <1% JackLN1Racing Bulls · races 78% <1% 1% <1% SnoopyFerrari <1% 1% <1%Show all 21 driversShow fewer
Formula KRTSAston Martin · races 62% 4% 12% 7% RomijnAston Martin 3% 11% 3% IanMercedes · races 78% 3% 11% 5% KyWilliams · races 95% 2% 11% 1% HazzaAudi 2% 10% 1% MisternoaAlpine · races 62% 2% 8% 5% OscarMercedes 2% 8% 1% MV3Alpine · races 45% 2% 6% 1% Nibble25Red Bull · races 45% 1% 6% 1% RiktaCadillac · races 95% 1% 5% <1% PezFerrari · races 62% 1% 3% <1% KaidenCadillac · races 62% <1% 2% <1% WalkerRed Bull · races 79% <1% 2% <1% DylxnMcLaren · races 95% <1% 2% <1% JackLN1Racing Bulls · races 78% <1% 2% <1% SnoopyFerrari · races 95% <1% 1% <1%Show all 21 driversShow fewer
Formula KRTSAston Martin · races 62% 4% 12% 7% IanMercedes · races 78% 3% 12% 5% RomijnAston Martin · races 95% 3% 11% 3% KyWilliams 3% 12% 1% HazzaAudi 2% 11% 1% MisternoaAlpine · races 62% 2% 8% 5% OscarMercedes 2% 8% 1% MV3Alpine · races 45% 2% 6% 1% Nibble25Red Bull · races 45% 1% 6% 1% RiktaCadillac · races 95% 1% 5% <1% PezFerrari · races 62% 1% 3% <1% KaidenCadillac · races 62% <1% 2% <1% WalkerRed Bull · races 78% <1% 2% <1% DylxnMcLaren · races 95% <1% 2% <1% JackLN1Racing Bulls · races 78% <1% 2% <1% SnoopyFerrari · races 95% <1% 1% <1%Show all 21 driversShow fewer
Formula KRTSAston Martin · races 62% 4% 12% 7% RomijnAston Martin · races 95% 3% 12% 3% IanMercedes · races 78% 3% 11% 5% KyWilliams 3% 12% 1% HazzaAudi · races 95% 2% 11% 1% MisternoaAlpine · races 62% 2% 8% 6% OscarMercedes · races 95% 2% 8% 1% MV3Alpine · races 45% 2% 7% 1% Nibble25Red Bull · races 45% 2% 7% 1% RiktaCadillac 1% 5% <1% PezFerrari · races 62% 1% 3% <1% KaidenCadillac · races 62% <1% 2% <1% WalkerRed Bull · races 78% <1% 2% <1% JackLN1Racing Bulls · races 78% <1% 2% <1% DylxnMcLaren · races 95% <1% 2% <1% SnoopyFerrari · races 95% <1% 1% <1%Pick the podium and pole before each race (log in with Discord). 3 points for an exact podium spot, 1 for a podium driver in the wrong spot, 2 for pole. The VRL Predictor plays too — can you beat the model?
| # | Player | Points |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | VRL Predictor model | 6 |
| 2 | [KE] Hazzk | 3 |
| 2 | Odhran | 3 |
| 4 | Fortdude21 | 2 |
| 5 | [VRL] MstE_SpurS | 1 |
| 5 | Always Gaming65 | 1 |
| 7 | RJ | 0 |
Picks are closed. They're checked when each tier's season ends.
The model picked Brambull.
The model picked Stef.
The model picked unLuckyNoob44.
Its pick for each race is saved before the race and checked once the results are in. The first scored race will show here.
Every Tier 3 race of Season 3 and Season 4 replayed as if it hadn't happened yet: settings learned only from earlier races, a prediction before qualifying, another once the grid was known, then checked against the real result.
Show all 3 replayed racesHide replayed races
| Race | Pole pick | Before quali | After quali | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S4 R3 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix | unLuckyNoob44 ✗ | unLuckyNoob44 ✓ | Rayaan ✗ | unLuckyNoob44 |
| S4 R2 Japanese Grand Prix | unLuckyNoob44 ✓ | Rayaan ✗ | unLuckyNoob44 ✓ | unLuckyNoob44 |
| S4 R1 Australian Grand Prix | unLuckyNoob44 ✓ | unLuckyNoob44 ✗ | unLuckyNoob44 ✗ | Rayaan |
| Chances of | It said | Happened | Count |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0–5% | 1% | 2% | 1,385 |
| 5–15% | 9% | 9% | 516 |
| 15–30% | 21% | 18% | 333 |
| 30–50% | 40% | 48% | 164 |
| 50–75% | 59% | 53% | 95 |
| 75–100% | 81% | 57% | 7 |
Every win and podium chance it gave in the training replay (before and after qualifying), grouped by size. If it's honest, its 20% chances come off about 20% of the time, so the dots sit on the line. It was a bit too sure of itself, so race-day luck is now turned up by 10%. Small groups (a low count) bounce around a lot.
How the predictions work
Nobody's guessing here: the site races the rest of the season 100,000 times and counts what happens. Each driver's pace comes from where they've been finishing and qualifying (grid spot and lap-time gap to pole), with recent races counting most, last season helping early on, and results from other tiers counted too, adjusted for the tier's level. DNFs, missed races and a bit of race-day luck are all built in, and points use the league's own rules, sprints and fastest lap included.
It trains itself, without peeking. Every time it updates, it replays Season 3 and Season 4 race by race. Before each race it re-learns its settings from the races before it only, predicts pole and the winner as if qualifying hadn't happened, predicts the winner again once the grid is known, then checks both against what really happened. Over 33 replayed races it picked the winner 18% of the time before qualifying (a random pick: about 3%) and 30% after it, with 52% of podium spots right. The live predictions then use settings learned from every race so far.
It also tests two extra ideas each time, how drivers go at particular tracks and a rating based on who they beat, and only uses them if they make the replay more accurate. So far neither has, so both are switched off. Cars are equal in the league, so only drivers are rated. Finally it checks its own percentages are honest (above) and adjusts how sure of itself it is to match, and measures how much form wanders from race to race, so races further ahead are treated as less certain.
It updates after every result. It's a bit of fun, not a guarantee.