Season 4

Standings

Title odds and race predictions — Tier 3, from thousands of simulated seasons.

Season All seasons

Spanish GP favourite Rayaan 60% to win Title favourite Rayaan 71% chance Track record 0/1 winners2/3 podium spots

Who wins Spanish Grand Prix? Round 6

The Spanish Grand Prix, round 6 of 12 in the VRL Tier 3, sees Rayaan on pole position ahead of Formula KRTS and Elliottm23. Rayaan, leading the championship with 75 points, has a strong chance to extend his lead, with a 60% shot at victory and an 86% chance of a podium finish. unLuckyNoob44, trailing by 7 points, has a 13% chance of winning and a 49% chance of securing a podium spot. The model predicts Rayaan's title chances at 71%, with unLuckyNoob44 holding on to 27%.

TosesMoses, despite not being a top favourite, emerges as a dark horse with a 17% chance of a podium finish, adding an element of unpredictability to the race.

Written by AI from the prediction numbers · 2026-10-17 12:20

DriverWinPodiumPole Points DNF Usual

RayaanMcLaren 60% 86% 100% 95% 5% P1–2 unLuckyNoob44Haas 13% 49% 0% 93% 5% P2–6 Formula KRTSAston Martin 8% 32% 0% 69% 30% P2–6 LewisRed Bull 6% 31% 0% 90% 6% P3–8 Elliottm23Audi 4% 23% 0% 83% 12% P3–9 TosesMosesRed Bull 3% 17% 0% 66% 30% P4–9

Show all 20 driversShow fewer

PoseidonMercedes 2% 14% 0% 79% 12% P4–10 VihesFerrari 1% 11% 0% 78% 10% P5–11 FletcherRacing Bulls 1% 7% 0% 61% 26% P6–12 Hagl3yAudi 1% 7% 0% 71% 12% P6–12 RomijnAston Martin 1% 5% 0% 61% 20% P6–12 Jack123McLaren 1% 5% 0% 66% 12% P7–13 RiktaCadillac <1% 3% 0% 45% 35% P7–13 KyWilliams <1% 3% 0% 49% 26% P8–13 MarshyboyWilliams <1% 2% 0% 41% 30% P9–14 OscarMercedes <1% 2% 0% 45% 23% P9–14 MV3Alpine <1% 1% 0% 36% 29% P10–15 SnoopyFerrari <1% 1% 0% 22% 50% P10–15 WalkerHaas <1% <1% 0% 21% 49% P11–15 DylxnRacing Bulls <1% <1% 0% 28% 28% P11–15

Why these chances?Hide the reasons

Driver	Form	Quali	Race	Races	DNF risk	Grid
Rayaan	82	84	80	4	5%	P1
unLuckyNoob44	75	82	71	4	5%	P8
Formula KRTS	57	70	50	1	30%	P2
Lewis	62	77	54	4	6%	P6
Elliottm23	50	50	50	0	12%	P3
TosesMoses	54	61	50	0	30%	P4

Form blends race pace with qualifying pace (lap-time gaps and grid spots), recent races counting most. Few races this season means last season and other tiers count for more. Once qualifying is in, the grid slot adds a boost, especially from the front row. Race-day luck and DNFs spread the chances out.

Fastest lapRayaan 25% · unLuckyNoob44 18% · Lewis 9%

Team of the weekend

McLaren ~24 pts 60% Haas ~14 pts 11% Aston Martin ~13 pts 10% Audi ~13 pts 7% Red Bull ~10 pts 5% Alpine ~8 pts 3%

Chance of scoring the most points of any team this weekend, and each team's expected haul.

Upset watch & streaks

Dark horse: TosesMoses (Red Bull) — not one of the top five favourites, but a 17% podium chance and 3% to win.

What if? Set your own result for the Spanish Grand Prix and see how the standings and title odds would change. Try it

Predicted final table 7 rounds left

PredDriver NowExpectedTop 3Title

Expected = average final points across every simulated season. Reserves and guest drivers keep the points they have so far (and aren't listed until they score).

Constructors' title

McLaren 244 pts 84% Haas 197 pts 16% Mercedes 125 pts <1% Audi 123 pts <1% Racing Bulls 121 pts <1% Red Bull 102 pts <1% Ferrari 100 pts <1% Williams 87 pts <1% Alpine 83 pts <1% Aston Martin 82 pts <1%

OCC titleAll tiers

Audi 563 pts 69% McLaren 506 pts 18% Ferrari 488 pts 12% Racing Bulls 432 pts 1% Haas 340 pts <1% Alpine 324 pts <1% Williams 309 pts <1% Red Bull 302 pts <1% Mercedes 278 pts 0% Aston Martin 265 pts 0%

Title odds over time

RayaanunLuckyNoob44LewisPezKyVihes

Each point is replayed with only the results up to that round, so it shows what the site would have said at the time. "Now" is today's prediction.

Form rankingsRating out of 100

1 KurtisAlpine ▼1 84 2 RayaanMcLaren ▲3 82 3 DwgellyAudi ▲2 81 4 unLuckyNoob44Haas ▼4 75 5 JaysonReserve 74 6 LewisRed Bull ▲3 62 7 FletcherRacing Bulls ▲1 61 8 Formula KRTSAston Martin ▼1 57 9 PezFerrari ▲22 55 10 BekiReserve 54 11 IanMercedes ▲4 49 12 Master_footballReserve 49 13 SurgeReserve 48 14 VihesFerrari 48 15 HazzaReserve ▲1 47 16 KyWilliams ▼1 44 17 Nibble25Red Bull 44 18 MarshyboyWilliams 43 19 RomijnAston Martin ▼4 42 20 OscarMercedes 41

The model's rating of each driver: roughly the share of the Tier 3 field they'd beat on an average day. The line shows it after each race this season; arrows are the change since the last race.

Clinch watch

Rayaan can't clinch at the Spanish Grand Prix. The earliest it could happen is R9 Singapore Grand Prix, and only if Rayaan took maximum points every weekend while nobody else scored.

R10 Italian 21%

R11 Mexican 36%

R12 Brazilian (final round) 42%

Level on points after the final round in 1% of simulations (decided on countback).

The round the title is mathematically decided, across all the simulated seasons.

Points targets

The champion usually ends on about 203 points (172–235 in most simulated seasons).

Rayaan75 now+128

unLuckyNoob4468 now+135

Magic number: Rayaan needs 196 more points to be certain of the title, even if unLuckyNoob44 won every remaining race with the fastest lap.

Final position chances

Show the chance of every finishing positionHide

Driver	P1	P2	P3	P4	P5	P6	P7	P8	P9	P10
Rayaan	71	26	2
unLuckyNoob44	27	62	9	2
Dwgelly				1	20	41	29	9	1
Fletcher	1	6	47	37	7	1
Ky			2	7	21	15	15	15	11	7
Lewis	1	6	37	40	10	3	2	1	1
Jayson										2
Pez			1	5	14	10	12	13	12	10
Oscar				2	7	7	9	13	13	12
Romijn				2	6	6	8	11	12	11
Ian				1	3	4	5	8	9	10
Vihes				1	4	4	5	8	9	10
Rikta					1	1	2	3	5	6
Kaiden									1	1
Nibble25							1	2	2	3
MV3							1	1	2	3

Percent chance of finishing the championship in each position. Darker = more likely.

Beating the model

JackLN1Best: P9 at Saudi Arabian (expected P20)+8.0 places

PezBest: P4 at British (expected P17)+7.5 places

OscarBest: P8 at Japanese (expected P16)+5.3 places

DylxnBest: P11 at British (expected P19)+5.0 places

HazzaBest: P5 at Japanese (expected P12)+4.0 places

Below expectations

LewisToughest: P11 at Japanese (expected P3)−2.8 places

RayaanToughest: P9 at Japanese (expected P1)−2.3 places

MisternoaToughest: P11 at Saudi Arabian (expected P7)−2.0 places

RomijnToughest: P13 at British (expected P8)−1.3 places

Average places gained or lost per race against the finishing order the model expected before each race (after qualifying). DNFs aren't counted.

Upsets of the season

Jayson won R4 British with a 1% chance (favourite: Rayaan, 46%).

unLuckyNoob44 won R3 Saudi Arabian with a 13% chance (favourite: Rayaan, 40%).

Rayaan won R1 Australian with a 18% chance (favourite: unLuckyNoob44, 25%).

unLuckyNoob44 won R2 Japanese with a 33% chance (favourite: Rayaan, 33%).

The model's win chance for each race winner once the grid was known, lowest first.

Qualifiers and racers

Saturday specialists (quicker in qualifying)

Misternoa11th qualifying · 28th race

Master_football9th qualifying · 23rd race

Romijn12th qualifying · 25th race

Ian10th qualifying · 21st race

Pez6th qualifying · 16th race

Sunday specialists (better in the race)

Walker11th race · 30th qualifying

Kaiden9th race · 25th qualifying

MV314th race · 28th qualifying

Marshyboy13th race · 23rd qualifying

Fletcher6th race · 15th qualifying

Each driver's qualifying pace and race pace ranked within Tier 3. A big gap between the two makes them a specialist.

Most consistent

FletcherUsually around P584

DylxnUsually around P16 · 1 DNF78

JackLN1Usually around P1662

LewisUsually around P954

unLuckyNoob44Usually around P545

RayaanUsually around P439

OscarUsually around P13 · 1 DNF39

RomijnUsually around P16 · 1 DNF36

Out of 100: how little a driver's finishing position changes from race to race (DNFs count as last). Needs three finishes.

Rivalries

Fletcher v unLuckyNoob44 2 – 2 Within two places of each other in 2 of 4 races. Last time: Fletcher P5, unLuckyNoob44 P8 at British. Next race: unLuckyNoob44 ahead 84% of the time. Rayaan v Dwgelly 2 – 1 Within two places of each other in 2 of 3 races. Last time: Rayaan P2, Dwgelly P3 at British. unLuckyNoob44 v Dwgelly 1 – 2 Within two places of each other in 2 of 3 races. Last time: unLuckyNoob44 P8, Dwgelly P3 at British. Rayaan v Fletcher 3 – 1 Within two places of each other in 2 of 4 races. Last time: Rayaan P2, Fletcher P5 at British. Next race: Rayaan ahead 93% of the time. Lewis v unLuckyNoob44 1 – 3 Within two places of each other in 2 of 4 races. Last time: Lewis P6, unLuckyNoob44 P8 at British. Next race: unLuckyNoob44 ahead 62% of the time. Fletcher v Dwgelly 0 – 3 Within two places of each other in 3 of 3 races. Last time: Fletcher P5, Dwgelly P3 at British.

Drivers who keep finishing close together with an even record this season. Tap one to compare them.

Teammate battles

McLaren Rayaan Jack123 Season >99%–<1% · next race 93%–7%

Mercedes Oscar Ian Season 67%–33%

Williams Ky Marshyboy Season 98%–2% · next race 51%–49%

Alpine MV3 TosesMoses Season 45%–55% · next race 27%–73%

Ferrari Pez Vihes Season 75%–25%

Cadillac Rikta Kaiden Season 80%–20%

Aston Martin Romijn Formula KRTS Season 70%–30% · next race 33%–67%

Red Bull Lewis Nibble25 Season >99%–<1%

Chance each teammate finishes ahead — in the final standings and at the next race (when both start). Compare any two drivers for more.

Season awardsEnd of season

Most wins

Rayaan · 1 so far50%

unLuckyNoob44 · 2 so far47%

Lewis · 0 so far2%

Most poles

Rayaan · 4 so far93%

unLuckyNoob44 · 2 so far7%

Lewis · 0 so far<1%

Most podiums

Rayaan · 3 so far79%

unLuckyNoob44 · 2 so far19%

Fletcher · 2 so far2%

Most fastest laps

Rayaan · 2 so far73%

unLuckyNoob44 · 1 so far19%

Lewis · 1 so far6%

Most DNFs

Rikta · 2 so far38%

Snoopy · 3 so far14%

Walker · 3 so far14%

Best newcomer

Rayaan · 75 pts72%

unLuckyNoob44 · 68 pts27%

Lewis · 28 pts1%

Who ends the season top of each list in the simulations (ties share it). A newcomer is anyone in their first VRL season.

Calendar forecast7 races left

Show every driver's expected finish at every raceHide

Driver	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	Pts
Rayaan	P2	P3	P3	P3	P3	P3	P3	120
unLuckyNoob44	P4	P3	P4	P4	P4	P4	P4	101
Fletcher	P9	P6	P6	P6	P6	P6	P6	53
Lewis	P6	P5	P5	P5	P5	P5	P5	76
Ky	P11	P8	P8	P8	P8	P8	P8	31
Pez	–	P6	P6	P6	P6	P6	P6	32
Oscar	P11	P9	P9	P9	P9	P9	P9	29
Romijn	P9	P9	P9	P8	P9	P9	P8	33
Vihes	P8	P8	P8	P8	P8	P8	P8	28
Ian	–	P7	P7	P7	P7	P7	P7	27
Formula KRTS	P5	P6	P6	P6	P6	P6	P6	32
Elliottm23	P6	P7	P7	P7	P7	P7	P7	26
Rikta	P10	P9	P9	P9	P9	P9	P9	21
Jack123	P10	P7	P7	P7	P7	P7	P7	22

Each driver's average finish when they finish, race by race (hover for expected points). The further away the race, the rougher the guess.

Long-range predictions

Every remaining race in Tier 3, worked out from today's results only. The further away a race is, the more a driver's form can change before then, so the chances even out round by round. These can be very inaccurate: drivers change teams, join, leave or miss races, and form changes a lot over a season. Treat them as a bit of fun.

Show predictions for all 6 remaining racesHide long-range predictions

R7 · Emilia Romagna Grand Prix 2026-10-23

DriverWinPodiumPole Points DNF Usual

RayaanMcLaren · races 84% 32% 59% 34% 79% 5% P1–4 unLuckyNoob44Haas · races 84% 23% 50% 17% 78% 5% P1–5 LewisRed Bull · races 84% 10% 32% 14% 75% 6% P2–7 FletcherRacing Bulls · races 84% 7% 23% 6% 58% 26% P3–8 PezFerrari · races 59% 4% 14% 4% 43% 20% P3–9

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Formula KRTSAston Martin · races 46% 3% 10% 8% 30% 29% P3–9 IanMercedes · races 59% 2% 10% 4% 42% 18% P4–10 KyWilliams · races 84% 2% 9% <1% 50% 26% P5–12 VihesFerrari · races 46% 2% 8% 3% 36% 10% P4–11 RomijnAston Martin · races 84% 2% 9% 6% 53% 20% P5–12 TosesMosesAlpine · races 35% 2% 6% 1% 22% 30% P3–9 Elliottm23Audi · races 35% 2% 6% <1% 27% 12% P4–10 OscarMercedes · races 84% 2% 8% 1% 50% 24% P5–12 Jack123McLaren · races 35% 2% 7% <1% 27% 12% P4–10 Nibble25Red Bull · races 46% 1% 5% <1% 27% 30% P5–11 MarshyboyWilliams · races 46% 1% 4% <1% 26% 30% P5–12 RiktaCadillac · races 71% 1% 5% <1% 35% 36% P6–12 MV3Alpine · races 46% 1% 3% 0% 25% 30% P6–12 KaidenCadillac · races 46% <1% 3% 0% 18% 50% P6–12

R8 · Hungarian Grand Prix Sprint weekend

DriverWinPodiumPole Points DNF Usual

RayaanMcLaren · races 84% 32% 59% 34% 79% 5% P1–4 unLuckyNoob44Haas · races 84% 22% 50% 17% 78% 5% P1–5 LewisRed Bull · races 84% 10% 32% 14% 75% 6% P2–7 FletcherRacing Bulls · races 84% 7% 23% 7% 59% 26% P3–8 PezFerrari · races 59% 4% 14% 4% 43% 20% P3–9

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Formula KRTSAston Martin · races 46% 3% 10% 8% 30% 30% P3–9 IanMercedes · races 59% 2% 10% 4% 42% 17% P4–10 VihesFerrari · races 46% 2% 8% 3% 36% 10% P4–11 RomijnAston Martin · races 84% 2% 9% 6% 53% 20% P5–12 KyWilliams · races 84% 2% 9% <1% 50% 26% P5–12 TosesMosesAlpine · races 35% 2% 6% 1% 22% 30% P3–9 OscarMercedes · races 84% 2% 8% 1% 50% 24% P5–12 Elliottm23Audi · races 35% 2% 7% <1% 27% 12% P4–10 Jack123McLaren · races 35% 2% 6% 1% 27% 12% P4–10 Nibble25Red Bull · races 46% 1% 5% <1% 26% 29% P5–12 RiktaCadillac · races 71% 1% 5% <1% 35% 35% P6–12 MarshyboyWilliams · races 46% 1% 4% <1% 26% 30% P5–12 MV3Alpine · races 46% 1% 4% <1% 25% 30% P6–12 KaidenCadillac · races 46% 1% 3% <1% 18% 50% P5–12

R9 · Singapore Grand Prix 2026-11-06

DriverWinPodiumPole Points DNF Usual

RayaanMcLaren · races 84% 31% 58% 33% 79% 5% P1–4 unLuckyNoob44Haas · races 84% 22% 50% 17% 78% 5% P1–5 LewisRed Bull · races 84% 10% 32% 14% 75% 6% P2–7 FletcherRacing Bulls · races 84% 7% 23% 7% 58% 26% P3–8 PezFerrari · races 59% 4% 14% 4% 43% 20% P3–9

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Formula KRTSAston Martin · races 46% 3% 10% 8% 30% 30% P3–9 IanMercedes · races 59% 2% 10% 4% 42% 17% P4–11 KyWilliams · races 84% 2% 9% <1% 50% 26% P5–12 RomijnAston Martin · races 84% 2% 9% 6% 53% 20% P5–12 VihesFerrari · races 46% 2% 8% 3% 36% 10% P4–11 TosesMosesAlpine · races 35% 2% 6% 1% 22% 30% P3–10 OscarMercedes · races 84% 2% 8% 1% 50% 23% P5–12 Elliottm23Audi · races 35% 2% 7% <1% 27% 12% P4–10 Jack123McLaren · races 35% 2% 7% <1% 27% 12% P4–10 RiktaCadillac · races 71% 1% 5% <1% 35% 35% P6–12 Nibble25Red Bull · races 46% 1% 5% <1% 26% 30% P5–12 MarshyboyWilliams · races 46% 1% 5% <1% 26% 29% P5–12 MV3Alpine · races 46% 1% 4% 0% 25% 30% P6–12 KaidenCadillac · races 46% 1% 3% <1% 18% 50% P5–12

R10 · Italian Grand Prix Sprint weekend

DriverWinPodiumPole Points DNF Usual

Show all 19 driversShow fewer

Formula KRTSAston Martin · races 46% 3% 10% 8% 30% 30% P3–9 IanMercedes · races 59% 2% 10% 4% 42% 17% P4–11 RomijnAston Martin · races 84% 2% 9% 6% 53% 20% P5–12 VihesFerrari · races 46% 2% 8% 3% 35% 10% P4–11 KyWilliams · races 84% 2% 9% <1% 50% 26% P5–12 TosesMosesAlpine · races 35% 2% 7% 1% 22% 30% P3–10 OscarMercedes · races 84% 2% 8% 1% 50% 23% P5–12 Jack123McLaren · races 35% 2% 7% 1% 27% 12% P4–10 Elliottm23Audi · races 35% 2% 7% 1% 27% 12% P4–10 RiktaCadillac · races 71% 1% 5% <1% 35% 35% P6–12 Nibble25Red Bull · races 46% 1% 5% <1% 26% 29% P5–12 MarshyboyWilliams · races 46% 1% 5% <1% 26% 29% P5–12 MV3Alpine · races 46% 1% 4% <1% 24% 30% P6–12 KaidenCadillac · races 46% 1% 3% 0% 18% 50% P5–12

R11 · Mexican Grand Prix 2026-11-20

DriverWinPodiumPole Points DNF Usual

RayaanMcLaren · races 84% 31% 58% 33% 79% 5% P1–4 unLuckyNoob44Haas · races 84% 22% 49% 17% 78% 5% P1–5 LewisRed Bull · races 84% 10% 32% 14% 75% 6% P2–7 FletcherRacing Bulls · races 84% 7% 23% 7% 58% 26% P3–8 PezFerrari · races 59% 4% 14% 5% 43% 20% P3–9

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Formula KRTSAston Martin · races 46% 3% 10% 8% 30% 30% P3–9 IanMercedes · races 59% 2% 10% 4% 42% 17% P4–11 RomijnAston Martin · races 84% 2% 9% 6% 53% 20% P5–12 KyWilliams · races 84% 2% 9% <1% 49% 26% P5–12 VihesFerrari · races 46% 2% 8% 3% 35% 10% P4–11 OscarMercedes · races 84% 2% 8% 1% 50% 23% P5–12 TosesMosesAlpine · races 35% 2% 6% 1% 22% 30% P3–10 Jack123McLaren · races 35% 2% 7% 1% 27% 12% P4–10 Elliottm23Audi · races 35% 2% 6% <1% 27% 12% P4–10 Nibble25Red Bull · races 46% 1% 5% <1% 26% 29% P5–12 RiktaCadillac · races 71% 1% 5% <1% 35% 36% P6–12 MarshyboyWilliams · races 46% 1% 5% <1% 26% 30% P5–12 MV3Alpine · races 46% 1% 4% <1% 25% 30% P6–12 KaidenCadillac · races 46% 1% 3% <1% 17% 50% P5–12

R12 · Brazilian Grand Prix 2026-11-27

DriverWinPodiumPole Points DNF Usual

Show all 19 driversShow fewer

Formula KRTSAston Martin · races 46% 3% 10% 8% 30% 30% P3–9 IanMercedes · races 59% 2% 10% 4% 41% 18% P4–11 VihesFerrari · races 47% 2% 8% 3% 36% 10% P4–11 KyWilliams · races 84% 2% 9% 1% 49% 26% P5–12 RomijnAston Martin · races 84% 2% 9% 6% 53% 20% P5–12 TosesMosesAlpine · races 35% 2% 6% 1% 22% 30% P3–10 Jack123McLaren · races 35% 2% 7% 1% 27% 12% P4–10 OscarMercedes · races 84% 2% 9% 1% 50% 23% P5–12 Elliottm23Audi · races 35% 2% 7% 1% 27% 12% P4–10 Nibble25Red Bull · races 46% 1% 5% <1% 26% 30% P5–12 MarshyboyWilliams · races 46% 1% 5% <1% 26% 30% P5–12 RiktaCadillac · races 71% 1% 6% <1% 35% 35% P5–12 MV3Alpine · races 46% 1% 4% <1% 24% 30% P5–12 KaidenCadillac · races 46% 1% 3% <1% 18% 50% P5–12

Fan prediction leagueAll tiers · this season

Pick the podium and pole before each race (log in with Discord). 3 points for an exact podium spot, 1 for a podium driver in the wrong spot, 2 for pole. The VRL Predictor plays too — can you beat the model?

Tier 2: Emilia Romagna GP · locks Sat 19:00 UK

#	Player	Points	Races	Exact spots	Best
1	VRL Predictor model	19	5	6	6
2	[BDA] Hazzk	15	5	4	4
3	Pofi3259⁰⁶	14	3	4	6
4	Always Gaming65	9	4	1	5
5	freddie	6	3	1	5
6	unLuckyNoob44	4	1	0	4
7	[VDR]Bramble618	3	3	0	2
7	Odhran	3	2	0	3
9	Fortdude21	2	1	0	2
10	[VRL] MstE_SpurS	1	1	0	1

Season champion picksOpen

Pick who you think will be champion in each tier. You can change your pick until they close. The model picks too.

Tier 18 picks

Most picked: Brambull (6), Pekima (1), Bobbieboy (1)

The model picked Brambull.

Tier 27 picks

Most picked: Wxrrior (2), Pofi (1), Freddie (1)

The model picked Pofi.

Tier 38 picks

Most picked: unLuckyNoob44 (4), Rayaan (1), Dwgelly (1)

The model picked unLuckyNoob44.

Track recordTier 3 · this season

0/1winners picked

0/1poles picked

2/3podium spots right

R4 British Grand Prix Picked Rayaan, won by Jayson ✗

Training replayTier 3 · Season 2 + Season 3 + Season 4

Every Tier 3 race of Season 2, Season 3 and Season 4 replayed as if it hadn't happened yet: settings learned only from earlier races, a prediction before qualifying, another once the grid was known, then checked against the real result.

1/4winners picked before qualifying

0/4winners picked after qualifying

2/4poles picked

Show all 4 replayed racesHide replayed races

Race	Pole pick	Before quali	After quali	Winner
S4 R4 British Grand Prix	Kurtis ✗	Kurtis ✗	Rayaan ✗	Jayson
S4 R3 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix	unLuckyNoob44 ✗	unLuckyNoob44 ✓	Rayaan ✗	unLuckyNoob44
S4 R2 Japanese Grand Prix	unLuckyNoob44 ✓	Rayaan ✗	Rayaan ✗	unLuckyNoob44
S4 R1 Australian Grand Prix	unLuckyNoob44 ✓	unLuckyNoob44 ✗	unLuckyNoob44 ✗	Rayaan

Are its percentages honest?All tiers · 56 replayed races

Now Before the adjustment

Chances of	It said	Happened	Count
0–5%	1%	2%	2,398
5–15%	9%	9%	759
15–30%	21%	18%	521
30–50%	40%	46%	264
50–75%	60%	58%	185
75–100%	81%	76%	29

Every win and podium chance it gave in the training replay (before and after qualifying), grouped by size. If it's honest, its 20% chances come off about 20% of the time, so the dots sit on the line. It was a bit too sure of itself, so race-day luck is now turned up by 10%. Small groups (a low count) bounce around a lot.

How the predictions work

Nobody's guessing here: the site races the rest of the season 100,000 times and counts what happens. Each driver's pace comes from where they've been finishing and qualifying (grid spot and lap-time gap to pole), with recent races counting most, last season helping early on, and results from other tiers counted too, adjusted for the tier's level. DNFs, missed races and a bit of race-day luck are all built in, and points use the league's own rules, sprints and fastest lap included.

It trains itself, without peeking. Every time it updates, it replays Season 2, Season 3 and Season 4 race by race. Before each race it re-learns its settings from the races before it only, predicts pole (from each driver's usual qualifying lap gap, recent sessions counting most) and the winner as if qualifying hadn't happened, predicts the winner again once the grid is known, then checks both against what really happened. Over 56 replayed races it picked the winner 25% of the time before qualifying (a random pick: about 4%) and 36% after it, with 57% of podium spots right. The live predictions then use settings learned from every race so far.

It also tests two extra ideas each time, how drivers go at particular tracks and a rating based on who they beat, and only uses them if they make the replay more accurate. So far neither has, so both are switched off. Cars are equal in the league, so only drivers are rated. Finally it checks its own percentages are honest (above) and adjusts how sure of itself it is to match, and measures how much form wanders from race to race, so races further ahead are treated as less certain.

It updates after every result. It's a bit of fun, not a guarantee.